What is Caseys General Stores Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Caseys General Stores Inc's reported free cash flow gives $588.37 per share. The share price was $598.46 on September 25, 2026, 2% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $337.43 | -44% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $588.37 | -2% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,055.63 | +76% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $778.36 | $837.60 | $910.01 | $1,000.51 | $1,116.88 |
| 8.0% | $635.64 | $674.05 | $719.46 | $773.94 | $840.53 |
| 9.0% | $531.79 | $558.06 | $588.37 | $623.73 | $665.52 |
| 10.0% | $453.05 | $471.73 | $492.90 | $517.10 | $545.01 |
| 11.0% | $391.44 | $405.14 | $420.44 | $437.66 | $457.17 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Caseys General Stores Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (15.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions