What is CARRIER GLOBAL Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on CARRIER GLOBAL Corp's reported free cash flow gives $32.18 per share. The share price was $53.01 on November 10, 2026, 65% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | $15.53 | -71% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | $32.18 | -39% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $64.59 | +22% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $44.03 | $47.63 | $52.03 | $57.53 | $64.60 |
| 8.0% | $35.20 | $37.53 | $40.29 | $43.60 | $47.65 |
| 9.0% | $28.74 | $30.33 | $32.18 | $34.32 | $36.86 |
| 10.0% | $23.81 | $24.94 | $26.23 | $27.70 | $29.40 |
| 11.0% | $19.93 | $20.76 | $21.69 | $22.74 | $23.92 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at CARRIER GLOBAL Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions