What is CarGurus, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on CarGurus, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $73.84 per share. The share price was $31.30 on September 25, 2026, 58% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | $46.32 | +48% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $73.84 | +136% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $128.70 | +311% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $94.66 | $101.09 | $108.94 | $118.75 | $131.36 |
| 8.0% | $79.07 | $83.24 | $88.16 | $94.07 | $101.29 |
| 9.0% | $67.71 | $70.55 | $73.84 | $77.67 | $82.20 |
| 10.0% | $59.07 | $61.09 | $63.39 | $66.01 | $69.04 |
| 11.0% | $52.29 | $53.77 | $55.43 | $57.30 | $59.42 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at CarGurus, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions