What is CarGurus, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on CarGurus, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $74.27 per share. The share price was $34.55 on November 9, 2026, 53% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | $46.74 | +35% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $74.27 | +115% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $129.13 | +274% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $95.09 | $101.51 | $109.36 | $119.17 | $131.79 |
| 8.0% | $79.50 | $83.67 | $88.59 | $94.49 | $101.71 |
| 9.0% | $68.13 | $70.98 | $74.27 | $78.10 | $82.63 |
| 10.0% | $59.49 | $61.52 | $63.81 | $66.44 | $69.46 |
| 11.0% | $52.72 | $54.20 | $55.86 | $57.73 | $59.84 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at CarGurus, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions