What is Calix, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Calix, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $49.87 per share. The share price was $32.24 on November 10, 2026, 35% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.0% | 10.0% | $30.69 | -5% |
| Base | 13.0% | 9.0% | $49.87 | +55% |
| Bull | 18.0% | 8.0% | $85.61 | +166% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $64.24 | $68.70 | $74.16 | $80.98 | $89.74 |
| 8.0% | $53.46 | $56.35 | $59.77 | $63.88 | $68.89 |
| 9.0% | $45.61 | $47.59 | $49.87 | $52.53 | $55.68 |
| 10.0% | $39.65 | $41.06 | $42.65 | $44.47 | $46.58 |
| 11.0% | $34.98 | $36.01 | $37.16 | $38.46 | $39.93 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Calix, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions