What is Calix, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Calix, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $50.06 per share. The share price was $33.14 on September 25, 2026, 34% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.0% | 10.0% | $30.88 | -7% |
| Base | 13.0% | 9.0% | $50.06 | +51% |
| Bull | 18.0% | 8.0% | $85.80 | +159% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $64.43 | $68.89 | $74.35 | $81.16 | $89.93 |
| 8.0% | $53.65 | $56.54 | $59.96 | $64.07 | $69.08 |
| 9.0% | $45.80 | $47.77 | $50.06 | $52.72 | $55.87 |
| 10.0% | $39.84 | $41.24 | $42.84 | $44.66 | $46.76 |
| 11.0% | $35.17 | $36.20 | $37.35 | $38.65 | $40.12 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Calix, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions