What is Cheesecake Factory Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Cheesecake Factory Inc's reported free cash flow gives $89.49 per share. The share price was $109.84 on November 10, 2026, 23% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.5% | 10.0% | $52.89 | -52% |
| Base | 13.5% | 9.0% | $89.49 | -19% |
| Bull | 18.5% | 8.0% | $162.40 | +48% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $117.64 | $126.38 | $137.07 | $150.42 | $167.59 |
| 8.0% | $96.52 | $102.19 | $108.89 | $116.93 | $126.75 |
| 9.0% | $81.14 | $85.01 | $89.49 | $94.71 | $100.87 |
| 10.0% | $69.47 | $72.22 | $75.35 | $78.92 | $83.04 |
| 11.0% | $60.32 | $62.35 | $64.60 | $67.14 | $70.02 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Cheesecake Factory Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions