What is Boyd Gaming Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Boyd Gaming Corp's reported free cash flow gives $114.79 per share. The share price was $71.23 on September 25, 2026, 38% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.5% | 10.0% | $60.31 | -15% |
| Base | 13.5% | 9.0% | $114.79 | +61% |
| Bull | 18.5% | 8.0% | $223.30 | +213% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $156.68 | $169.70 | $185.60 | $205.48 | $231.04 |
| 8.0% | $125.25 | $133.69 | $143.66 | $155.63 | $170.25 |
| 9.0% | $102.36 | $108.13 | $114.79 | $122.55 | $131.73 |
| 10.0% | $84.99 | $89.09 | $93.74 | $99.06 | $105.19 |
| 11.0% | $71.38 | $74.39 | $77.75 | $81.54 | $85.82 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Boyd Gaming Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions