What is BWX Technologies, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on BWX Technologies, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $56.37 per share. The share price was $126.64 on November 10, 2026, 125% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $29.15 | -77% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $56.37 | -55% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $110.65 | -13% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $76.73 | $82.98 | $90.61 | $100.16 | $112.43 |
| 8.0% | $61.51 | $65.56 | $70.35 | $76.10 | $83.12 |
| 9.0% | $50.41 | $53.18 | $56.37 | $60.10 | $64.51 |
| 10.0% | $41.95 | $43.92 | $46.16 | $48.71 | $51.65 |
| 11.0% | $35.32 | $36.76 | $38.37 | $40.19 | $42.25 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at BWX Technologies, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions