What is BWX Technologies, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on BWX Technologies, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $56.83 per share. The share price was $138.47 on September 25, 2026, 144% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $29.60 | -79% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $56.83 | -59% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $111.10 | -20% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $77.18 | $83.43 | $91.07 | $100.61 | $112.89 |
| 8.0% | $61.97 | $66.02 | $70.81 | $76.55 | $83.58 |
| 9.0% | $50.86 | $53.63 | $56.83 | $60.56 | $64.96 |
| 10.0% | $42.41 | $44.38 | $46.61 | $49.16 | $52.11 |
| 11.0% | $35.77 | $37.21 | $38.83 | $40.64 | $42.70 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at BWX Technologies, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions