What is First Busey Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on First Busey Corp's reported free cash flow gives $76.34 per share. The share price was $29.11 on November 10, 2026, 62% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $50.00 | +72% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $76.34 | +162% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $125.38 | +331% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $96.28 | $102.50 | $110.10 | $119.60 | $131.81 |
| 8.0% | $81.30 | $85.33 | $90.10 | $95.82 | $102.81 |
| 9.0% | $70.40 | $73.16 | $76.34 | $80.05 | $84.44 |
| 10.0% | $62.14 | $64.10 | $66.32 | $68.86 | $71.79 |
| 11.0% | $55.67 | $57.11 | $58.72 | $60.52 | $62.57 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at First Busey Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (16.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions