What is BrightSpire Capital, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives -$13.41 per share. The share price was $3.28 on November 10, 2026, 124% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | -$16.00 | -588% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | -$13.41 | -509% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | -$8.36 | -355% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$11.59 | -$11.04 | -$10.37 | -$9.53 | -$8.45 |
| 8.0% | -$12.94 | -$12.59 | -$12.16 | -$11.66 | -$11.04 |
| 9.0% | -$13.93 | -$13.69 | -$13.41 | -$13.08 | -$12.69 |
| 10.0% | -$14.69 | -$14.52 | -$14.32 | -$14.10 | -$13.84 |
| 11.0% | -$15.29 | -$15.16 | -$15.02 | -$14.86 | -$14.68 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions