What is Box Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Box Inc's reported free cash flow gives $54.04 per share. The share price was $31.34 on September 28, 2026, 42% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $32.83 | +5% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $54.04 | +72% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $93.62 | +199% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $69.59 | $74.37 | $80.22 | $87.53 | $96.93 |
| 8.0% | $57.96 | $61.06 | $64.73 | $69.13 | $74.50 |
| 9.0% | $49.47 | $51.59 | $54.04 | $56.90 | $60.27 |
| 10.0% | $43.02 | $44.53 | $46.24 | $48.19 | $50.44 |
| 11.0% | $37.95 | $39.06 | $40.29 | $41.68 | $43.26 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Box Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions