What is Backblaze, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Backblaze, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $11.66 per share. The share price was $13.19 on September 25, 2026, 13% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $7.31 | -45% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $11.66 | -12% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $19.75 | +50% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $14.95 | $15.97 | $17.23 | $18.80 | $20.81 |
| 8.0% | $12.48 | $13.14 | $13.93 | $14.87 | $16.03 |
| 9.0% | $10.68 | $11.13 | $11.66 | $12.27 | $12.99 |
| 10.0% | $9.31 | $9.64 | $10.00 | $10.42 | $10.91 |
| 11.0% | $8.24 | $8.48 | $8.75 | $9.05 | $9.38 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Backblaze, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (28.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions