What is Bloomin' Brands, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $12.68 per share. The share price was $7.88 on September 25, 2026, 38% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | $5.00 | -37% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | $12.68 | +61% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $27.63 | +251% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $18.15 | $19.81 | $21.84 | $24.37 | $27.63 |
| 8.0% | $14.07 | $15.15 | $16.42 | $17.95 | $19.81 |
| 9.0% | $11.09 | $11.83 | $12.68 | $13.67 | $14.84 |
| 10.0% | $8.82 | $9.34 | $9.93 | $10.61 | $11.39 |
| 11.0% | $7.03 | $7.41 | $7.84 | $8.32 | $8.87 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions