What is Bloomin' Brands, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $12.20 per share. The share price was $9.93 on November 10, 2026, 19% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | $4.52 | -55% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | $12.20 | +23% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $27.15 | +173% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $17.66 | $19.33 | $21.35 | $23.89 | $27.15 |
| 8.0% | $13.59 | $14.67 | $15.94 | $17.47 | $19.33 |
| 9.0% | $10.61 | $11.35 | $12.20 | $13.19 | $14.36 |
| 10.0% | $8.34 | $8.86 | $9.45 | $10.13 | $10.91 |
| 11.0% | $6.55 | $6.93 | $7.36 | $7.84 | $8.39 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions