What is Builders FirstSource, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $167.94 per share. The share price was $59.17 on September 25, 2026, 65% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $88.80 | +50% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $167.94 | +184% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $325.61 | +450% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $228.26 | $246.92 | $269.71 | $298.21 | $334.85 |
| 8.0% | $183.07 | $195.16 | $209.46 | $226.61 | $247.58 |
| 9.0% | $150.13 | $158.40 | $167.94 | $179.08 | $192.23 |
| 10.0% | $125.11 | $130.99 | $137.65 | $145.27 | $154.06 |
| 11.0% | $105.49 | $109.80 | $114.62 | $120.04 | $126.19 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions