What is Booking Holdings Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Booking Holdings Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $9,107.57 per share. The share price was $163.95 on September 25, 2026, 98% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $5,498.10 | +3,254% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $9,107.57 | +5,455% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $15,828.55 | +9,554% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $11,840.36 | $12,692.46 | $13,733.91 | $15,035.73 | $16,709.49 |
| 8.0% | $9,787.47 | $10,340.05 | $10,993.10 | $11,776.76 | $12,734.57 |
| 9.0% | $8,293.82 | $8,671.64 | $9,107.57 | $9,616.17 | $10,217.24 |
| 10.0% | $7,161.24 | $7,429.92 | $7,734.42 | $8,082.43 | $8,483.97 |
| 11.0% | $6,275.05 | $6,472.02 | $6,692.16 | $6,939.83 | $7,220.51 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Booking Holdings Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (31.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions