What is BJs RESTAURANTS INC worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on BJs RESTAURANTS INC's reported free cash flow gives $51.13 per share. The share price was $55.59 on November 10, 2026, 9% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.5% | 10.0% | $31.62 | -43% |
| Base | 12.5% | 9.0% | $51.13 | -8% |
| Bull | 17.5% | 8.0% | $90.01 | +62% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $66.06 | $70.69 | $76.34 | $83.41 | $92.49 |
| 8.0% | $54.87 | $57.87 | $61.41 | $65.67 | $70.87 |
| 9.0% | $46.71 | $48.76 | $51.13 | $53.89 | $57.15 |
| 10.0% | $40.52 | $41.98 | $43.63 | $45.52 | $47.70 |
| 11.0% | $35.67 | $36.74 | $37.93 | $39.28 | $40.80 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at BJs RESTAURANTS INC's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions