What is BJs RESTAURANTS INC worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on BJs RESTAURANTS INC's reported free cash flow gives $49.96 per share. The share price was $60.13 on September 25, 2026, 20% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.5% | 10.0% | $30.44 | -49% |
| Base | 12.5% | 9.0% | $49.96 | -17% |
| Bull | 17.5% | 8.0% | $88.84 | +48% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $64.89 | $69.51 | $75.17 | $82.23 | $91.32 |
| 8.0% | $53.69 | $56.69 | $60.24 | $64.49 | $69.69 |
| 9.0% | $45.54 | $47.59 | $49.96 | $52.72 | $55.98 |
| 10.0% | $39.35 | $40.81 | $42.46 | $44.35 | $46.53 |
| 11.0% | $34.50 | $35.57 | $36.76 | $38.11 | $39.63 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at BJs RESTAURANTS INC's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions