What is BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $48.70 per share. The share price was $93.79 on September 25, 2026, 93% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.0% | 10.0% | $28.87 | -69% |
| Base | 7.0% | 9.0% | $48.70 | -48% |
| Bull | 12.0% | 8.0% | $85.72 | -9% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $63.07 | $67.47 | $72.84 | $79.56 | $88.19 |
| 8.0% | $52.34 | $55.19 | $58.56 | $62.61 | $67.55 |
| 9.0% | $44.50 | $46.45 | $48.70 | $51.33 | $54.43 |
| 10.0% | $38.54 | $39.92 | $41.49 | $43.29 | $45.36 |
| 11.0% | $33.85 | $34.86 | $36.00 | $37.28 | $38.73 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions