What is Bausch Health Companies Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Bausch Health Companies Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives -$1.15 per share.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.0% | 10.0% | -$20.01 | - |
| Base | 5.0% | 9.0% | -$1.15 | - |
| Bull | 10.0% | 8.0% | $34.06 | - |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $12.35 | $16.45 | $21.47 | $27.75 | $35.82 |
| 8.0% | $2.28 | $4.95 | $8.10 | $11.87 | $16.49 |
| 9.0% | -$5.07 | -$3.25 | -$1.15 | $1.30 | $4.20 |
| 10.0% | -$10.68 | -$9.39 | -$7.92 | -$6.24 | -$4.30 |
| 11.0% | -$15.09 | -$14.14 | -$13.08 | -$11.89 | -$10.54 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Bausch Health Companies Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions