What is B&G Foods, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on B&G Foods, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives -$12.75 per share. The share price was $3.10 on September 25, 2026, 124% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -6.0% | 10.0% | -$17.03 | -649% |
| Base | -1.0% | 9.0% | -$12.75 | -511% |
| Bull | 4.0% | 8.0% | -$4.77 | -254% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$9.82 | -$8.94 | -$7.87 | -$6.53 | -$4.81 |
| 8.0% | -$11.99 | -$11.43 | -$10.75 | -$9.95 | -$8.96 |
| 9.0% | -$13.59 | -$13.20 | -$12.75 | -$12.23 | -$11.61 |
| 10.0% | -$14.81 | -$14.54 | -$14.22 | -$13.87 | -$13.45 |
| 11.0% | -$15.78 | -$15.58 | -$15.35 | -$15.10 | -$14.81 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at B&G Foods, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 6 fiscal years (-1.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions