What is BGC Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on BGC Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $14.81 per share. The share price was $11.84 on September 25, 2026, 20% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $8.64 | -27% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $14.81 | +25% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $27.12 | +129% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $19.40 | $20.81 | $22.52 | $24.67 | $27.43 |
| 8.0% | $15.97 | $16.88 | $17.96 | $19.25 | $20.83 |
| 9.0% | $13.47 | $14.09 | $14.81 | $15.65 | $16.64 |
| 10.0% | $11.56 | $12.01 | $12.51 | $13.08 | $13.75 |
| 11.0% | $10.07 | $10.39 | $10.75 | $11.16 | $11.63 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at BGC Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions