What is Business First Bancshares, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $122.38 per share. The share price was $30.86 on September 25, 2026, 75% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $82.00 | +166% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $122.38 | +297% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $197.56 | +540% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $152.95 | $162.48 | $174.13 | $188.69 | $207.42 |
| 8.0% | $129.98 | $136.17 | $143.47 | $152.24 | $162.95 |
| 9.0% | $113.28 | $117.50 | $122.38 | $128.07 | $134.79 |
| 10.0% | $100.61 | $103.61 | $107.02 | $110.91 | $115.40 |
| 11.0% | $90.69 | $92.90 | $95.36 | $98.13 | $101.27 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions