What is Brinks Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Brinks Co's reported free cash flow gives $162.52 per share. The share price was $106.82 on September 25, 2026, 34% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $80.74 | -24% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $162.52 | +52% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $325.57 | +205% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $223.30 | $241.90 | $264.65 | $293.07 | $329.62 |
| 8.0% | $177.90 | $189.97 | $204.23 | $221.34 | $242.25 |
| 9.0% | $144.75 | $153.00 | $162.52 | $173.62 | $186.75 |
| 10.0% | $119.50 | $125.37 | $132.02 | $139.62 | $148.39 |
| 11.0% | $99.67 | $103.97 | $108.78 | $114.19 | $120.31 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Brinks Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions