What is BALL Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on BALL Corp's reported free cash flow gives $43.18 per share. The share price was $66.79 on November 10, 2026, 55% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -3.0% | 10.0% | $26.51 | -60% |
| Base | 2.0% | 9.0% | $43.18 | -35% |
| Bull | 7.0% | 8.0% | $74.31 | +11% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $54.87 | $58.40 | $62.71 | $68.10 | $75.03 |
| 8.0% | $46.18 | $48.47 | $51.17 | $54.42 | $58.38 |
| 9.0% | $39.81 | $41.38 | $43.18 | $45.29 | $47.77 |
| 10.0% | $34.95 | $36.06 | $37.32 | $38.76 | $40.42 |
| 11.0% | $31.11 | $31.93 | $32.84 | $33.86 | $35.02 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at BALL Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions