What is Autozone Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Autozone Inc's reported free cash flow gives $1,823.02 per share. The share price was $2,872.16 on September 25, 2026, 58% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $943.96 | -67% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $1,823.02 | -37% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $3,575.62 | +24% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $2,480.33 | $2,682.08 | $2,928.66 | $3,236.88 | $3,633.16 |
| 8.0% | $1,989.00 | $2,119.83 | $2,274.45 | $2,459.99 | $2,686.76 |
| 9.0% | $1,630.35 | $1,719.80 | $1,823.02 | $1,943.43 | $2,085.74 |
| 10.0% | $1,357.45 | $1,421.06 | $1,493.16 | $1,575.55 | $1,670.62 |
| 11.0% | $1,143.12 | $1,189.76 | $1,241.88 | $1,300.52 | $1,366.97 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Autozone Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions