What is American Express Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on American Express Co's reported free cash flow gives $737.63 per share. The share price was $324.91 on November 10, 2026, 56% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $439.54 | +35% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $737.63 | +127% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,292.69 | +298% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $963.32 | $1,033.70 | $1,119.71 | $1,227.22 | $1,365.45 |
| 8.0% | $793.78 | $839.42 | $893.35 | $958.07 | $1,037.17 |
| 9.0% | $670.43 | $701.63 | $737.63 | $779.64 | $829.28 |
| 10.0% | $576.89 | $599.08 | $624.23 | $652.97 | $686.13 |
| 11.0% | $503.71 | $519.97 | $538.15 | $558.61 | $581.79 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at American Express Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions