What is American Express Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on American Express Co's reported free cash flow gives $742.75 per share. The share price was $308.89 on September 25, 2026, 58% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $444.66 | +44% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $742.75 | +140% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,297.81 | +320% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $968.44 | $1,038.81 | $1,124.82 | $1,232.33 | $1,370.56 |
| 8.0% | $798.90 | $844.54 | $898.47 | $963.19 | $1,042.29 |
| 9.0% | $675.55 | $706.75 | $742.75 | $784.75 | $834.39 |
| 10.0% | $582.01 | $604.20 | $629.35 | $658.09 | $691.25 |
| 11.0% | $508.82 | $525.09 | $543.27 | $563.72 | $586.90 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at American Express Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions