What is Axon Enterprise, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $16.35 per share. The share price was $430.11 on September 25, 2026, 2,531% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $4.53 | -99% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $16.35 | -96% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $38.35 | -91% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $25.29 | $28.08 | $31.49 | $35.76 | $41.24 |
| 8.0% | $18.57 | $20.38 | $22.52 | $25.09 | $28.22 |
| 9.0% | $13.68 | $14.92 | $16.35 | $18.01 | $19.98 |
| 10.0% | $9.97 | $10.85 | $11.85 | $12.99 | $14.31 |
| 11.0% | $7.07 | $7.72 | $8.44 | $9.25 | $10.17 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (32.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions