What is Avalon Holdings Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Avalon Holdings Corp's reported free cash flow gives $5.13 per share. The share price was $2.59 on September 25, 2026, 50% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $0.93 | -64% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $5.13 | +98% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $13.50 | +422% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $8.25 | $9.20 | $10.37 | $11.83 | $13.71 |
| 8.0% | $5.92 | $6.54 | $7.27 | $8.15 | $9.22 |
| 9.0% | $4.21 | $4.64 | $5.13 | $5.70 | $6.37 |
| 10.0% | $2.92 | $3.22 | $3.56 | $3.95 | $4.40 |
| 11.0% | $1.90 | $2.12 | $2.37 | $2.65 | $2.96 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Avalon Holdings Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions