What is Armstrong World Industries Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Armstrong World Industries Inc's reported free cash flow gives $141.88 per share. The share price was $177.74 on November 10, 2026, 25% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $84.52 | -52% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $141.88 | -20% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $256.21 | +44% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $185.53 | $199.02 | $215.51 | $236.12 | $262.63 |
| 8.0% | $152.83 | $161.58 | $171.92 | $184.33 | $199.50 |
| 9.0% | $129.00 | $134.98 | $141.88 | $149.94 | $159.45 |
| 10.0% | $110.89 | $115.15 | $119.97 | $125.48 | $131.84 |
| 11.0% | $96.70 | $99.82 | $103.30 | $107.23 | $111.67 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Armstrong World Industries Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions