What is Mission Produce, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Mission Produce, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $9.84 per share. The share price was $13.14 on September 25, 2026, 34% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.5% | 10.0% | $4.21 | -68% |
| Base | 12.5% | 9.0% | $9.84 | -25% |
| Bull | 17.5% | 8.0% | $21.05 | +60% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $14.14 | $15.48 | $17.11 | $19.14 | $21.77 |
| 8.0% | $10.91 | $11.78 | $12.80 | $14.03 | $15.53 |
| 9.0% | $8.56 | $9.15 | $9.84 | $10.63 | $11.57 |
| 10.0% | $6.78 | $7.20 | $7.67 | $8.22 | $8.85 |
| 11.0% | $5.38 | $5.68 | $6.03 | $6.42 | $6.86 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Mission Produce, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (12.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions