What is Avalonbay Communities Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Avalonbay Communities Inc's reported free cash flow gives $123.16 per share. The share price was $184.06 on August 14, 2026, 49% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $53.72 | -71% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $123.16 | -33% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $261.60 | +42% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $174.13 | $189.64 | $208.61 | $232.32 | $262.80 |
| 8.0% | $136.12 | $146.19 | $158.08 | $172.35 | $189.79 |
| 9.0% | $108.34 | $115.22 | $123.16 | $132.42 | $143.37 |
| 10.0% | $87.16 | $92.05 | $97.60 | $103.94 | $111.25 |
| 11.0% | $70.50 | $74.08 | $78.09 | $82.60 | $87.71 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Avalonbay Communities Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions