What is Astronics Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Astronics Corp's reported free cash flow gives $23.38 per share. The share price was $67.65 on September 28, 2026, 189% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $11.36 | -83% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $23.38 | -65% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $47.33 | -30% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $32.52 | $35.35 | $38.80 | $43.12 | $48.67 |
| 8.0% | $25.67 | $27.50 | $29.67 | $32.27 | $35.45 |
| 9.0% | $20.68 | $21.93 | $23.38 | $25.06 | $27.06 |
| 10.0% | $16.88 | $17.78 | $18.79 | $19.94 | $21.27 |
| 11.0% | $13.91 | $14.56 | $15.29 | $16.12 | $17.05 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Astronics Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions