What is Anterix Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Anterix Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $15.84 per share.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $12.05 | - |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $15.84 | - |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $22.89 | - |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $18.71 | $19.60 | $20.69 | $22.06 | $23.82 |
| 8.0% | $16.55 | $17.13 | $17.82 | $18.64 | $19.64 |
| 9.0% | $14.98 | $15.38 | $15.84 | $16.37 | $17.00 |
| 10.0% | $13.80 | $14.08 | $14.40 | $14.76 | $15.18 |
| 11.0% | $12.87 | $13.07 | $13.30 | $13.56 | $13.86 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Anterix Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (47.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions