What is Astrana Health, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Astrana Health, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $59.21 per share. The share price was $31.84 on November 10, 2026, 46% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $31.77 | -0% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $59.21 | +86% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $110.30 | +246% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $79.98 | $86.46 | $94.38 | $104.28 | $117.00 |
| 8.0% | $64.38 | $68.58 | $73.54 | $79.50 | $86.78 |
| 9.0% | $53.02 | $55.90 | $59.21 | $63.08 | $67.65 |
| 10.0% | $44.41 | $46.46 | $48.77 | $51.42 | $54.47 |
| 11.0% | $37.68 | $39.17 | $40.85 | $42.73 | $44.86 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Astrana Health, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (35.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions