What is Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $44.60 per share. The share price was $49.14 on September 25, 2026, 10% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -4.0% | 10.0% | $26.71 | -46% |
| Base | 1.0% | 9.0% | $44.60 | -9% |
| Bull | 6.0% | 8.0% | $78.00 | +59% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $57.06 | $60.81 | $65.39 | $71.11 | $78.47 |
| 8.0% | $47.80 | $50.23 | $53.11 | $56.55 | $60.76 |
| 9.0% | $41.02 | $42.68 | $44.60 | $46.83 | $49.48 |
| 10.0% | $35.83 | $37.02 | $38.35 | $39.88 | $41.65 |
| 11.0% | $31.74 | $32.61 | $33.58 | $34.66 | $35.90 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (1.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions