What is AdvanSix Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on AdvanSix Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives -$4.58 per share. The share price was $15.34 on November 10, 2026, 435% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | -$6.23 | -141% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | -$4.58 | -130% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | -$1.28 | -108% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | -$3.36 | -$3.00 | -$2.54 | -$1.98 | -$1.25 |
| 8.0% | -$4.27 | -$4.03 | -$3.75 | -$3.41 | -$2.99 |
| 9.0% | -$4.93 | -$4.77 | -$4.58 | -$4.36 | -$4.10 |
| 10.0% | -$5.43 | -$5.32 | -$5.19 | -$5.04 | -$4.86 |
| 11.0% | -$5.83 | -$5.75 | -$5.65 | -$5.54 | -$5.42 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at AdvanSix Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions