What is Aramark worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Aramark's reported free cash flow gives $13.15 per share. The share price was $54.92 on September 25, 2026, 318% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $0.28 | -99% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $13.15 | -76% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $38.79 | -29% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $22.71 | $25.63 | $29.21 | $33.68 | $39.43 |
| 8.0% | $15.56 | $17.46 | $19.71 | $22.40 | $25.69 |
| 9.0% | $10.35 | $11.65 | $13.15 | $14.89 | $16.96 |
| 10.0% | $6.38 | $7.30 | $8.35 | $9.54 | $10.92 |
| 11.0% | $3.26 | $3.94 | $4.69 | $5.54 | $6.51 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Aramark's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions