What is Appfolio Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Appfolio Inc's reported free cash flow gives $223.31 per share. The share price was $204.22 on September 25, 2026, 9% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $138.03 | -32% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $223.31 | +9% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $382.10 | +87% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $287.87 | $308.01 | $332.61 | $363.37 | $402.91 |
| 8.0% | $239.37 | $252.43 | $267.86 | $286.37 | $309.00 |
| 9.0% | $204.08 | $213.01 | $223.31 | $235.33 | $249.53 |
| 10.0% | $177.32 | $183.67 | $190.87 | $199.09 | $208.58 |
| 11.0% | $156.39 | $161.04 | $166.24 | $172.09 | $178.72 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Appfolio Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (25.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions