What is APi Group Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on APi Group Corp's reported free cash flow gives $44.99 per share. The share price was $42.79 on November 10, 2026, 5% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $24.32 | -43% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $44.99 | +5% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $83.49 | +95% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $60.65 | $65.53 | $71.49 | $78.95 | $88.54 |
| 8.0% | $48.89 | $52.05 | $55.79 | $60.28 | $65.77 |
| 9.0% | $40.33 | $42.50 | $44.99 | $47.91 | $51.35 |
| 10.0% | $33.84 | $35.38 | $37.13 | $39.12 | $41.42 |
| 11.0% | $28.77 | $29.90 | $31.16 | $32.58 | $34.18 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at APi Group Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (17.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions