What is APi Group Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on APi Group Corp's reported free cash flow gives $46.27 per share. The share price was $38.46 on September 25, 2026, 17% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $25.59 | -33% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $46.27 | +20% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $84.77 | +120% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $61.92 | $66.80 | $72.77 | $80.22 | $89.81 |
| 8.0% | $50.16 | $53.33 | $57.07 | $61.56 | $67.04 |
| 9.0% | $41.60 | $43.77 | $46.27 | $49.18 | $52.62 |
| 10.0% | $35.12 | $36.66 | $38.40 | $40.39 | $42.69 |
| 11.0% | $30.04 | $31.17 | $32.43 | $33.85 | $35.46 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at APi Group Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (17.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions