What is American Public Education Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on American Public Education Inc's reported free cash flow gives $83.70 per share. The share price was $40.20 on November 10, 2026, 52% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $51.67 | +29% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $83.70 | +108% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $143.34 | +257% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $107.95 | $115.51 | $124.76 | $136.31 | $151.16 |
| 8.0% | $89.74 | $94.64 | $100.43 | $107.39 | $115.89 |
| 9.0% | $76.48 | $79.83 | $83.70 | $88.21 | $93.55 |
| 10.0% | $66.43 | $68.81 | $71.52 | $74.60 | $78.17 |
| 11.0% | $58.57 | $60.31 | $62.27 | $64.47 | $66.96 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at American Public Education Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (15.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions