What is American Public Education Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on American Public Education Inc's reported free cash flow gives $84.80 per share. The share price was $41.67 on September 25, 2026, 51% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $52.77 | +27% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $84.80 | +104% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $144.44 | +247% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $109.05 | $116.62 | $125.86 | $137.41 | $152.26 |
| 8.0% | $90.84 | $95.74 | $101.54 | $108.49 | $116.99 |
| 9.0% | $77.58 | $80.93 | $84.80 | $89.32 | $94.65 |
| 10.0% | $67.53 | $69.92 | $72.62 | $75.71 | $79.27 |
| 11.0% | $59.67 | $61.42 | $63.37 | $65.57 | $68.06 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at American Public Education Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (15.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions