What is Aon plc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Aon plc's reported free cash flow gives $233.69 per share. The share price was $336.34 on November 10, 2026, 44% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $99.83 | -70% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $233.69 | -31% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $483.43 | +44% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $331.81 | $361.99 | $398.88 | $445.00 | $504.29 |
| 8.0% | $258.41 | $277.99 | $301.12 | $328.88 | $362.81 |
| 9.0% | $204.86 | $218.24 | $233.69 | $251.70 | $272.99 |
| 10.0% | $164.13 | $173.65 | $184.44 | $196.76 | $210.99 |
| 11.0% | $132.16 | $139.14 | $146.94 | $155.71 | $165.65 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Aon plc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions