What is Aon plc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Aon plc's reported free cash flow gives $290.88 per share. The share price was $277.99 on September 25, 2026, 4% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $157.02 | -44% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $290.88 | +5% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $540.63 | +94% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $389.00 | $419.19 | $456.08 | $502.19 | $561.48 |
| 8.0% | $315.61 | $335.18 | $358.31 | $386.07 | $420.00 |
| 9.0% | $262.06 | $275.44 | $290.88 | $308.90 | $330.19 |
| 10.0% | $221.33 | $230.85 | $241.63 | $253.96 | $268.18 |
| 11.0% | $189.36 | $196.34 | $204.13 | $212.91 | $222.85 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Aon plc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions