What is Amerisafe Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Amerisafe Inc's reported free cash flow gives $7.89 per share. The share price was $19.87 on November 10, 2026, 152% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -6.5% | 10.0% | $5.78 | -71% |
| Base | -1.5% | 9.0% | $7.89 | -60% |
| Bull | 3.5% | 8.0% | $12.10 | -39% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $9.37 | $9.81 | $10.35 | $11.02 | $11.88 |
| 8.0% | $8.28 | $8.56 | $8.90 | $9.30 | $9.80 |
| 9.0% | $7.47 | $7.67 | $7.89 | $8.16 | $8.47 |
| 10.0% | $6.86 | $7.00 | $7.16 | $7.33 | $7.54 |
| 11.0% | $6.37 | $6.47 | $6.59 | $6.72 | $6.86 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Amerisafe Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-1.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions