What is Amrize Ltd worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Amrize Ltd's reported free cash flow gives $27.54 per share. The share price was $41.95 on November 10, 2026, 52% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -4.5% | 10.0% | $14.06 | -66% |
| Base | 0.5% | 9.0% | $27.54 | -34% |
| Bull | 5.5% | 8.0% | $53.78 | +28% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $36.88 | $39.68 | $43.11 | $47.39 | $52.89 |
| 8.0% | $29.95 | $31.76 | $33.91 | $36.49 | $39.64 |
| 9.0% | $24.86 | $26.10 | $27.54 | $29.21 | $31.18 |
| 10.0% | $20.97 | $21.85 | $22.85 | $24.00 | $25.32 |
| 11.0% | $17.90 | $18.54 | $19.27 | $20.08 | $21.01 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Amrize Ltd's revenue growth rate over the last 2 fiscal years (0.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions