What is Ameresco, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ameresco, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $69.54 per share. The share price was $27.62 on November 10, 2026, 60% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $41.89 | +52% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $69.54 | +152% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $121.01 | +338% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $90.47 | $96.99 | $104.97 | $114.94 | $127.76 |
| 8.0% | $74.74 | $78.98 | $83.98 | $89.98 | $97.31 |
| 9.0% | $63.30 | $66.20 | $69.54 | $73.43 | $78.04 |
| 10.0% | $54.63 | $56.69 | $59.02 | $61.69 | $64.76 |
| 11.0% | $47.84 | $49.35 | $51.04 | $52.94 | $55.08 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ameresco, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (15.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions