What is Ameresco, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ameresco, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $69.96 per share. The share price was $21.48 on September 25, 2026, 69% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $42.31 | +97% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $69.96 | +226% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $121.43 | +465% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $90.89 | $97.41 | $105.39 | $115.36 | $128.18 |
| 8.0% | $75.17 | $79.40 | $84.40 | $90.40 | $97.74 |
| 9.0% | $63.73 | $66.62 | $69.96 | $73.85 | $78.46 |
| 10.0% | $55.05 | $57.11 | $59.44 | $62.11 | $65.18 |
| 11.0% | $48.26 | $49.77 | $51.46 | $53.36 | $55.51 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ameresco, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (15.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions