What is Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $56.21 per share. The share price was $155.15 on November 9, 2026, 176% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $44.63 | -71% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $56.21 | -64% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $79.30 | -49% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $64.87 | $67.53 | $70.78 | $74.84 | $80.06 |
| 8.0% | $58.40 | $60.12 | $62.16 | $64.60 | $67.59 |
| 9.0% | $53.67 | $54.85 | $56.21 | $57.80 | $59.67 |
| 10.0% | $50.08 | $50.92 | $51.87 | $52.95 | $54.20 |
| 11.0% | $47.25 | $47.87 | $48.56 | $49.33 | $50.20 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions