What is Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $54.15 per share. The share price was $174.43 on September 25, 2026, 222% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $42.57 | -76% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $54.15 | -69% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $77.24 | -56% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $62.81 | $65.46 | $68.71 | $72.77 | $77.99 |
| 8.0% | $56.33 | $58.06 | $60.09 | $62.54 | $65.53 |
| 9.0% | $51.61 | $52.79 | $54.15 | $55.73 | $57.61 |
| 10.0% | $48.01 | $48.85 | $49.80 | $50.89 | $52.14 |
| 11.0% | $45.19 | $45.80 | $46.49 | $47.26 | $48.14 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions