What is Amplitude, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Amplitude, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $7.51 per share. The share price was $17.32 on November 9, 2026, 131% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $4.74 | -73% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $7.51 | -57% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $12.67 | -27% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $9.60 | $10.26 | $11.06 | $12.06 | $13.34 |
| 8.0% | $8.03 | $8.45 | $8.95 | $9.56 | $10.29 |
| 9.0% | $6.88 | $7.17 | $7.51 | $7.90 | $8.36 |
| 10.0% | $6.01 | $6.22 | $6.45 | $6.72 | $7.03 |
| 11.0% | $5.33 | $5.48 | $5.65 | $5.84 | $6.06 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Amplitude, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (35.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions