What is Amgen Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Amgen Inc's reported free cash flow gives $236.59 per share. The share price was $414.61 on September 25, 2026, 75% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $117.57 | -72% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $236.59 | -43% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $473.89 | +14% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $325.05 | $352.13 | $385.23 | $426.60 | $479.79 |
| 8.0% | $258.98 | $276.54 | $297.29 | $322.20 | $352.64 |
| 9.0% | $210.72 | $222.73 | $236.59 | $252.75 | $271.85 |
| 10.0% | $173.99 | $182.53 | $192.20 | $203.26 | $216.02 |
| 11.0% | $145.12 | $151.38 | $158.37 | $166.24 | $175.16 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Amgen Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions