What is Amgen Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Amgen Inc's reported free cash flow gives $241.20 per share. The share price was $465.23 on November 10, 2026, 93% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $122.17 | -74% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $241.20 | -48% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $478.50 | +3% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $329.66 | $356.74 | $389.84 | $431.21 | $484.40 |
| 8.0% | $263.59 | $281.15 | $301.90 | $326.81 | $357.25 |
| 9.0% | $215.33 | $227.34 | $241.20 | $257.36 | $276.46 |
| 10.0% | $178.60 | $187.13 | $196.81 | $207.87 | $220.63 |
| 11.0% | $149.73 | $155.99 | $162.98 | $170.85 | $179.77 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Amgen Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions