What is Ambarella Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ambarella Inc's reported free cash flow gives $39.48 per share. The share price was $72.68 on September 25, 2026, 84% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $25.40 | -65% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $39.48 | -46% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $67.55 | -7% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $50.22 | $53.54 | $57.60 | $62.67 | $69.19 |
| 8.0% | $42.18 | $44.33 | $46.87 | $49.93 | $53.66 |
| 9.0% | $36.31 | $37.78 | $39.48 | $41.47 | $43.81 |
| 10.0% | $31.86 | $32.91 | $34.09 | $35.45 | $37.01 |
| 11.0% | $28.37 | $29.13 | $29.99 | $30.96 | $32.05 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ambarella Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions