What is Applied Materials Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Applied Materials Inc's reported free cash flow gives $178.74 per share. The share price was $485.00 on September 25, 2026, 171% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | $111.28 | -77% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $178.74 | -63% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $313.21 | -35% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $229.77 | $245.52 | $264.76 | $288.81 | $319.73 |
| 8.0% | $191.57 | $201.77 | $213.84 | $228.32 | $246.01 |
| 9.0% | $163.70 | $170.68 | $178.74 | $188.13 | $199.24 |
| 10.0% | $142.53 | $147.49 | $153.12 | $159.54 | $166.96 |
| 11.0% | $125.91 | $129.55 | $133.62 | $138.20 | $143.38 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Applied Materials Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions