What is Autoliv Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Autoliv Inc's reported free cash flow gives $180.14 per share. The share price was $117.52 on September 25, 2026, 35% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $105.99 | -10% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $180.14 | +53% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $327.99 | +179% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $235.25 | $252.12 | $272.75 | $298.52 | $331.66 |
| 8.0% | $194.09 | $205.03 | $217.96 | $233.48 | $252.44 |
| 9.0% | $164.03 | $171.51 | $180.14 | $190.21 | $202.11 |
| 10.0% | $141.14 | $146.46 | $152.49 | $159.38 | $167.33 |
| 11.0% | $123.15 | $127.05 | $131.41 | $136.31 | $141.87 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Autoliv Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions