What is Alto Ingredients, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Alto Ingredients, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $1.06 per share. The share price was $3.73 on September 25, 2026, 250% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -4.5% | 10.0% | $0.46 | -88% |
| Base | 0.5% | 9.0% | $1.06 | -71% |
| Bull | 5.5% | 8.0% | $2.23 | -40% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1.48 | $1.61 | $1.76 | $1.95 | $2.19 |
| 8.0% | $1.17 | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.46 | $1.60 |
| 9.0% | $0.95 | $1.00 | $1.06 | $1.14 | $1.23 |
| 10.0% | $0.77 | $0.81 | $0.86 | $0.91 | $0.97 |
| 11.0% | $0.64 | $0.66 | $0.70 | $0.73 | $0.77 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Alto Ingredients, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (0.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions