What is Allison Transmission Holdings Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Allison Transmission Holdings Inc's reported free cash flow gives $120.68 per share. The share price was $113.86 on September 25, 2026, 6% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $58.75 | -48% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $120.68 | +6% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $244.16 | +114% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $166.71 | $180.80 | $198.03 | $219.56 | $247.23 |
| 8.0% | $132.33 | $141.47 | $152.27 | $165.23 | $181.07 |
| 9.0% | $107.22 | $113.47 | $120.68 | $129.09 | $139.03 |
| 10.0% | $88.11 | $92.55 | $97.59 | $103.34 | $109.98 |
| 11.0% | $73.08 | $76.34 | $79.98 | $84.08 | $88.72 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Allison Transmission Holdings Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions